Climate: Can Joe Biden Save the Planet?

Climate: Can Joe Biden Save the Planet?

Climate: The president-elect has promised to reintegrate the United States, the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, into the Paris Agreement, along with a host of other environmental measures. His plan for the environment could prevent a 0.1-degree rise by 2100, but does he have the power to push them through?

 

Florent Variety

 

Trump has weakened or overturned more than 125 rules in favour of the environment. The climate scepticism of the soon to be ex-US president was notorious. Its predecessor is about to make a 180-degree turn. He wants to reintegrate the United States into the Paris Agreement, but not only. In his victory speech on November 7, Joe Biden promised to place the fight against global warming among the “top priorities” of his mandate.

 

The tone had been set from the start of his campaign. Its program announced 1.700 billion dollars of investment over ten years to green the country. But that was before, the Democrat has already indicated that he would change this commitment by bringing it to 2,000 billion, and no longer over ten but four years. It is an understatement to say that the change should be drastic with the Trump administration. "We intend to hold the polluters responsible for the destruction they have created," insisted the Democratic candidate. And more than reducing emissions, the elected president wants to make the United States carbon neutral by 2050, like the European Union's commitments.

 

This reversal of the situation gives balm to the hearts of environmental defenders and all eco-anxious undermined by the climate emergency. However, one is entitled to wonder if a single president - American as he is - can reverse the trend of climate change.

 

US proposals for the upcoming Paris Agreement

 

Reintegration within the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement, signed in December 2015, should be the first stone of this policy. What will this translate into the policy of the United States which, as a reminder, represents 15% of total greenhouse gas emissions?

 

It should be noted that the text aims to keep the increase in global temperature at a level well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to limit the increase in temperature even further to 1, 5 degrees Celsius. For this, countries are invited, every five years, to formulate more ambitious proposals than the previous ones. The United States will not be able to meet this first deadline next month, since Biden will take office a month later. According to Climate Action Tracker, if candidate Biden's commitments are upheld and met, they could prevent a 0.1-degree rise in average temperature by 2100.

 

We must therefore quickly raise the level of commitment requirements to hope to change the situation. The new proposals are expected to come in at COP 26 to be held in Glasgow in November 2021. And future President Biden's proposals are already in the drawers: limiting oil and gas drilling on land and territorial waters; increased pollution standards for cars and SUVs; development of renewable energies or even blocking of pipeline projects transporting fossil fuels across the country. Biden has also promised to suspend the licenses for the famous Keystone XL pipeline that was to link Canada to the centre of the country and the Pebble Mine project in Alaska. He also pledged to eliminate carbon emissions from the electricity sector by 2035.

But sceptics are sure to point out that a campaign cannot be confused with a mandate. And to wonder to what extent the Democratic president will implement his program. For their part, optimists would be tempted to remain confident given Joe Biden's past. In 1986, he introduced the Global Climate Protection Act, the first climate change bill to the Senate that ordered the federal government to research and develop a strategy to deal with global warming. Under Obama, he was responsible for overseeing the $ 90 billion clean energy plan. Solar energy has increased 20-fold between 2008 and 2016.

 

Supreme Court + industrialists vs. Joe Biden

 

But before considering the elected president as the savoir of humanity, we must understand if he will be able to translate his intentions into actions. And there, it is no longer a question of his sincerity but rather of his real capacity to act. All its commitments will be conditioned by the majority of the US Congress. If the House of Representatives are won over to the Democrats, the Senate currently has 50 Republicans out of its 100 seats. And the majority could switch in favour of the conservatives with the two elections scheduled for next January.

 

The consequences of a Republican majority would not be minor. All of the most ambitious and radically leftist ideas could be considered dead even before they get to Congress. If Joe Biden manages to get them passed, Senate Republicans could challenge them judicially in the Supreme Court. However, after Trump's mandate, the highest judicial institution is made up of six out of nine Republican judges. We remember that President Obama had to govern by decree to try to put in place "The Clean Power Plan", which had been blocked by the Supreme Court.

 

And that's without counting the lobby of certain manufacturers who could take a dim view of this environmental turning point. American opinion is not acquired either. According to a study published in January 2020 by the Pew Research Centre, 30% of Americans believe that laws and regulations in favour of the environment destroy too many jobs. Nevertheless, the scale of priorities evolves more each year in favour of the fight against climate change.

 

For the first time, environmental protection rivals the economy in the order of priorities for public policy, according to a poll of the American population.

For the first time, environmental protection rivals the economy in the order of priorities for public policy, according to a poll of the American population. Pew Research Centre

 

And if all these pitfalls are overcome, will the United States alone be enough to get humanity out of the climate rut? Of course not, but as the second-largest issuer behind China, their weight is considerable. Especially since China has also embarked on the path of carbon neutrality by 2060.

 

And beyond the reduction in emissions from the United States alone, a strong commitment by the American presidency will have a multiplier effect because of its influence. Which prompted Osama’s former special advisor on the environment to tell the Guardian: “If the United States, Europe, and China can work together on climate change, they can extend the fight to the world.” whole”? A group of countries to which we must add Japan, and South Korea, or two-thirds of world GDP and more than 50% of greenhouse gas emissions!